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The Ashes could provide a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Older Squad Fascination Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this team and particularly the bowling unit. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test team being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a process that would certainly be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is here, forced upon this Australian squad in the space of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the balance experiences a much more significant shift with two players absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests entering the attack after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the first Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

Register to The Spin

Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a pattern of minor injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Future Uncertain

The latter part of the series may witness the main four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane choice, but after that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is not the place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and amid it all opportunity for the opposing side. You can hear that train a-coming, coming around the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.